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Writer's pictureTerry Tips
Sep 255 min read

The New Manager Bounce: Myth or Reality


As we draw further into the season Last Man Standing gets harder with all the big teams gone, so now we look at some of the strategies when choosing a struggling side lower down in the table...


One strategy is select a team that has that new manager bounce! But is it a myth??


In football, the "new manager bounce" is a well-worn phrase used to describe the phenomenon where a struggling team suddenly performs better after appointing a new manager. For many fans, this is almost an expectation: a new coach comes in, and the team shows immediate improvement, often achieving results that eluded them under the previous manager. But is the new manager bounce a real, consistent effect, or just a convenient narrative?


Let’s dive deeper into what the new manager bounce entails, why it might happen, and whether it actually works in the long run.


What is the "New Manager Bounce"?


Simply put, the "new manager bounce" refers to a short-term uplift in a team’s performances and results following the appointment of a new head coach. This is often seen in struggling teams, particularly those fighting relegation or those underperforming relative to their talent and expectations.


The term suggests that the change in leadership brings immediate tactical adjustments, improved morale, and motivation, leading to better results. For many clubs, appointing a new manager feels like hitting the reset button on a faltering season.


Why Does It Happen?


There are a few factors that might explain why teams experience a sudden upturn after a managerial change:


Psychological Reset


When a new manager takes over, players often feel a heightened sense of urgency. Their previous performances are no longer held against them, and there’s an opportunity to make a fresh impression. Those who were out of favour with the previous manager might see the change as a new lease of life and work harder to secure a spot in the team. This can lead to a temporary spike in intensity and motivation.


Tactical Changes


A new manager often brings fresh ideas. Whether it's a change in formation, defensive strategy, or a different approach to pressing, these tweaks can surprise opponents in the short term. Players might also thrive in different tactical systems that better suit their skills. While these changes don’t guarantee sustained success, they can give a team an edge during the early stages of a managerial tenure.


Positive Atmosphere


Underperforming teams tend to suffer from low morale and confidence. When a manager is sacked, the removal of a negative influence can lift the squad. The atmosphere improves, training sessions become more energised, and this positivity can translate into better performances on the pitch.


Management of Expectations


A new manager often comes into a struggling team with relatively low expectations. The narrative shifts from "this team should be winning" to "let’s give the new manager time to implement changes." This shift in pressure might allow players to play with more freedom and less fear of failure, temporarily leading to better performances.


Does the Bounce Last?


While the new manager bounce is often a real, measurable effect, it’s usually short-lived. The initial boost might last for a handful of games, but sustaining that improvement is where the real challenge lies. There are several reasons for this:


Reversion to the Mean


The bounce is often a correction of form, particularly if the team was significantly underperforming its potential. Once the initial enthusiasm wanes, the team can revert to its previous level of performance, especially if deeper issues like squad quality or long-term tactical deficiencies remain unaddressed.


Opposition Adaptation


After a few matches, opponents start to adapt to the new manager’s tactical approach. Football is a game of constant analysis, and teams will quickly learn how to counteract the new manager’s strategies. The element of surprise wears off, and results may begin to plateau.


Underlying Structural Problems


Sometimes, a managerial change isn’t enough to address systemic issues within a club, such as a lack of squad depth, poor recruitment, or internal dysfunction. In these cases, the initial improvement may quickly give way to familiar problems, as the new manager inherits the same challenges that led to the previous coach’s downfall.


Case Studies: Success and Failure


Several famous examples showcase both the success and limits of the new manager bounce.


Thomas Tuchel at Chelsea (2021)


When Frank Lampard was sacked in January 2021, Chelsea brought in Thomas Tuchel. The team immediately experienced an uptick in form, especially in defence. Tuchel guided Chelsea to a top-four finish and went on to win the Champions League within months of his arrival. This was an example of a "bounce" that translated into long-term success, as Tuchel's tactical acumen helped Chelsea rediscover their best form.


Ole Gunnar Solskjær at Manchester United (2018)


Solskjær’s appointment as interim manager in December 2018 saw a dramatic turnaround in Manchester United’s fortunes, with the team winning 14 of his first 19 matches in charge. However, after he was appointed permanently, the team’s performances became more inconsistent, and the early results proved unsustainable in the long run.


Sam Allardyce at West Brom (2020)


Known for his ability to rescue teams from relegation, Sam Allardyce took over West Bromwich Albion during the 2020-21 season. While there were occasional flashes of improvement, the new manager bounce never truly materialised, and West Brom were relegated at the end of the season, proving that a change in leadership doesn’t always guarantee survival.


Is It a Myth?


The new manager bounce isn’t a myth, but it is often overstated. Data suggests that teams do tend to improve marginally after appointing a new manager, but the bounce is usually temporary. On average, research has shown that a new manager tends to gain an extra 1-2 points from their first 5-10 games in charge. However, whether this bounce translates into long-term improvement largely depends on the quality of the manager, the squad at their disposal, and the broader structural issues within the club.


Conclusion: A Temporary Solution, Not a Cure-All


In the high-stakes world of football, a new manager bounce can be a vital lifeline for struggling clubs. It can provide a temporary boost in morale, motivation, and results. However, relying solely on this effect is risky. Long-term success requires more than just a change in leadership; it requires strategic planning, sound recruitment, and addressing deep-rooted issues within the squad.


While the new manager bounce might spark immediate improvement, it is the quality of the manager and the club’s overall structure that will determine whether the bounce leads to lasting success or a quick return to familiar struggles.


In terms of LMS the long term doesn't really matter as they only need to get you through that week.


Good Luck this gameweek!


Terry

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